- Five Florida cities ranked in the national Top 15 according to projected population growth data
- The Villages, located in Central Florida, far outpaced every other metro area in the nation by more than 100 percentage points
- Other top cities for projected growth in the Sunshine State: Cape Coral, Port St. Lucie, Naples, and Orlando
Florida cities account for one third of the Top 15 fastest growing cities in the nation, according to new data from Woods & Poole Economics, a firm that specializes in long-term county economic data and demographic data projections. The Villages, located in Central Florida, are projected to be the number one metro area in the nation for growth between now and 2060, with more than a 223% increase over that span.
Results from the 2020 census reveal some notable changes in population distribution over the last decade. The U.S. population grew by about 7% from 2010 to 2020, or by about 20 million people. Over the same period, more than 80% of U.S. metro areas reported population growth.
While it remains to be seen whether the broad trend of urbanization will continue into the future, the report projects that the population of several U.S. metro areas is likely to swell by over 50% in the coming decades.
Population change is the end result of two factors: migration and natural change. Migration is the net change of people moving to and from an area, while natural change is the number of births less the number of deaths.
Cape Coral ranks just behind The Villages in projected growth, and fourth in the nation, with a 92% increase that is expected to see their population skyrocket from 800,000 to more than 1.5 million by 2060.
The Port St. Lucie metro area in Florida is projected to grow from 511,300 in 2022 to 920,600 in 2060. The area’s 80.1% projected population growth in the metro area is the 10th highest of all 384 U.S. metro areas. Not far behind, the population of the Naples-Marco Island metro area is projected to grow from 392,600 in 2022 to 700,700 in 2060. That 78.5% projected population growth is good enough to rank 12th highest of all 384 U.S. metro areas, while the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro area in Florida is projected to grow from 2,737,800 in 2022 to 4,800,100 in 2060. Orlando’s 75.3% projected population growth in the metro area is the 15th highest in the nation.
Economic opportunity is one of the most common reasons people move within the United States. Over the same period, employment in Orlando is projected to grow by 104.1% by 2060, while personal income per capita is projected to grow from $53,475 in 2022 to $310,247 in 2060.
All data in this story is from Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., Washington D.C. Copyright 2022.
| Rank | Metro area | Change in population, 2022 to 2060 | Total population, 2022 | Projected population, 2060 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Villages, FL | +223.2% | 139,900 | 452,100 |
| 2 | St. George, UT | +118.1% | 195,200 | 425,700 |
| 3 | Austin, TX | +97.4% | 2,398,400 | 4,733,500 |
| 4 | Cape Coral, FL | +92.0% | 803,000 | 1,541,400 |
| 5 | Las Vegas, NV | +90.5% | 2,335,600 | 4,450,000 |
| 6 | Greeley, CO | +89.0% | 346,600 | 655,000 |
| 7 | Bend, OR | +83.6% | 208,500 | 382,900 |
| 8 | Provo, UT | +82.7% | 709,600 | 1,296,600 |
| 9 | Myrtle Beach, SC | +81.9% | 519,200 | 944,700 |
| 10 | Port St. Lucie, FL | +80.1% | 511,300 | 920,600 |
| 11 | Raleigh, NC | +79.8% | 1,474,600 | 2,651,400 |
| 12 | Naples, FL | +78.5% | 392,600 | 700,700 |
| 13 | Mcallen, TX | +76.3% | 895,000 | 1,578,200 |
| 14 | Fayetteville, AR | +76.0% | 570,100 | 1,003,300 |
| 15 | Orlando, FL | +75.3% | 2,737,800 | 4,800,100 |
| 16 | Boise City, ID | +68.8% | 807,700 | 1,363,100 |
| 17 | Phoenix, AZ | +67.3% | 5,021,500 | 8,398,600 |
| 18 | Dallas, TX | +63.3% | 7,874,000 | 12,859,600 |
| 19 | Midland, TX | +62.6% | 175,700 | 285,700 |
| 20 | Houston, TX | +62.2% | 7,310,900 | 11,857,500 |
| 21 | Daphne, AL | +61.9% | 243,000 | 393,200 |
| 22 | Kennewick, WA | +60.7% | 312,700 | 502,500 |
| 23 | Coeur D’Alene, ID | +60.5% | 182,400 | 292,600 |
| 24 | Charleston, SC | +60.3% | 824,400 | 1,321,300 |
| 25 | Hilton Head Island, SC | +59.3% | 225,300 | 358,900 |
| 26 | Charlotte, NC | +58.4% | 2,738,800 | 4,339,400 |
| 27 | San Antonio, TX | +58.3% | 2,637,500 | 4,176,000 |
| 28 | Sebastian, FL | +58.0% | 165,600 | 261,700 |
| 29 | Riverside, CA | +56.8% | 4,716,700 | 7,396,000 |
| 30 | Ocala, FL | +56.8% | 390,500 | 612,100 |
| 31 | Nashville, TN | +56.1% | 2,039,400 | 3,182,500 |
| 32 | Punta Gorda, FL | +55.6% | 197,100 | 306,700 |
| 33 | Lakeland, FL | +55.5% | 764,200 | 1,188,600 |
| 34 | Laredo, TX | +54.9% | 271,600 | 420,600 |
| 35 | Prescott Valley, AZ | +54.5% | 245,000 | 378,500 |
| 36 | College Station, TX | +54.4% | 275,100 | 424,700 |
| 37 | Sioux Falls, SD | +53.5% | 285,700 | 438,400 |
| 38 | Atlanta, GA | +53.4% | 6,223,700 | 9,549,300 |
| 39 | Jacksonville, FL | +52.9% | 1,658,800 | 2,536,200 |
| 40 | Reno, NV | +51.6% | 504,000 | 764,100 |
Be careful what you wish for.