The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday projected an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, warning of heightened storm activity fueled by record-warm ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions that favor the development of powerful cyclones.
The official outlook, released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, forecasts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The agency expects between 13 and 19 named storms, of which 6 to 10 are likely to reach hurricane strength, including 3 to 5 major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or higher with winds of at least 111 miles per hour. The forecast covers the period from June 1 through November 30 and carries a 70% confidence level.
This year’s forecast is shaped by several key factors, including unusually high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin, reduced vertical wind shear, and the continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions in the Pacific. These elements, combined with a potentially enhanced West African monsoon, create favorable conditions for storm formation and intensification. NOAA officials noted that the Atlantic remains in a multi-decadal era of high activity, marked by warmer waters and weaker trade winds, which together increase the likelihood of more frequent and intense storms.
Speaking during the agency’s annual outlook briefing, NOAA officials emphasized that even storms that do not make landfall can have significant impacts. Hurricanes Helene and Debby in 2024, both of which triggered severe inland flooding, were cited as examples of why residents far from the coast should remain vigilant.
To support preparedness efforts, NOAA highlighted a number of upgrades to its forecasting and communications capabilities for the 2025 season. These include enhancements to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, which is expected to deliver a 5% improvement in storm track and intensity forecasts, as well as expanded early warning systems. The National Hurricane Center will now issue advisories up to 72 hours in advance of expected tropical-storm-force winds or storm surge, extending lead times for emergency response.
The agency also announced that several public information tools will be updated or expanded this year. A revised version of the forecast cone will now include inland watches and warnings, and Spanish-language forecast products will be available for all key advisory updates. NOAA will also issue rip current risk maps during active tropical systems and deploy new airborne radar instruments aboard hurricane reconnaissance aircraft to improve data collection on wind structure and wave patterns.
The seasonal forecast is not a landfall prediction, and officials cautioned that any individual storm could bring significant impacts regardless of the overall activity level. A midseason update to the outlook is scheduled for early August, ahead of the historical peak of hurricane activity in September.
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