First Lady Casey DeSantis holds a slim lead in Florida’s 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, but a recent poll shows Congressman Byron Donalds is rapidly closing the gap, propelled by an endorsement from President Donald Trump that significantly boosts his support among Republican voters.

The poll, conducted May 5-7 by Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, surveyed 1,200 registered voters statewide with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points. Among Republicans, DeSantis, who has not yet announced her candidacy, led with 29 percent, followed closely by Donalds at 28 percent. Former Congressman Matt Gaetz trailed with 10 percent support, while former Lieutenant Governor Jeanette Nuñez, now interim president of Florida International University, registered at 7 percent.

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez garnered 5 percent, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson stood at 4 percent, Surfside Mayor Charles Burkett at 3 percent, and former Pensacola Mayor Ashton Hayward at 1 percent. Thirteen percent of Republican voters were undecided.

When respondents were informed of Trump’s endorsement of Donalds, the race shifted sharply. Donalds surged to 44 percent support, overtaking DeSantis, who dropped to 25 percent. Gaetz remained at 7 percent, while other candidates showed little movement. The undecided share decreased to 7 percent.

The poll found Trump’s endorsement to be a decisive factor in the primary. Sixty-five percent of Republican voters said a Trump endorsement would make them “much” (31 percent) or “somewhat more likely” (34 percent) to support a candidate. Only 5 percent said it would make them less likely, while 26 percent reported it would have no impact. Despite this, just 38 percent of Republicans surveyed were aware that Trump had endorsed Donalds, while 50 percent said they were unaware and 12 percent were unsure.

In the Democratic primary, Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava led with 32 percent support among Democrats. Former Congresswoman Gwen Graham followed at 13 percent, with former Republican Congressman David Jolly at 10 percent.

Former Senate Democratic Leader Lauren Book polled at 7 percent, equal to State Representative Fentrice Driskell. State Representative Angie Nixon registered at 6 percent, and State Senator Shevrin Jones at 4 percent. One in five Democratic voters said they were undecided.

The poll also tested hypothetical general election matchups. In a three-way race featuring Donalds, Levine Cava, and still-unannounced independent candidate Jason Pizzo, Donalds led with 38 percent, Levine Cava followed at 34 percent, and Pizzo trailed with 5 percent. Twenty-three percent of voters said they were undecided. In a separate matchup substituting DeSantis for Donalds, DeSantis polled at 39 percent, Levine Cava at 35 percent, and Pizzo improved to 8 percent. Eighteen percent were undecided in that scenario.

Favorable impressions of the leading Republican candidates varied. DeSantis was viewed very or somewhat favorably by 38 percent of voters, with 31 percent viewing her unfavorably and 22 percent holding no opinion. Only 9 percent said they were unfamiliar with her. Donalds had lower name recognition, with 26 percent viewing him favorably, 13 percent unfavorably, and 23 percent holding no opinion. Notably, 37 percent of respondents said they were unfamiliar with Donalds.

The poll also reflected Florida’s partisan leanings, with 43 percent identifying as Republican, 33 percent as Democrat, and 23 percent as independent. Ideologically, 38 percent of voters described themselves as conservative, 25 percent as liberal, and 34 percent as moderate.