A University of North Florida poll shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points among likely Florida voters, as constitutional amendment efforts regarding marijuana and abortion continue to carry strong support.

Former President Donald Trump holds a seven-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among likely Florida voters, according to a new University of North Florida (UNF) poll.

The poll found that 49 percent of respondents would vote for Trump if the presidential election were held today, while 42 percent would vote for Harris. Another 4 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 6 percent were undecided or refused to answer. Among Republicans, 82 percent support Trump, while 82 percent of Democrats back Harris. Among independents, Trump leads with 50 percent, compared to Harris’ 38 percent.

A dichotomy between genders emerged, with 54 percent of men supporting Trump versus 39 percent of women. Harris, on the other hand, is supported by 51 percent of women and 37 percent of men. Racial and ethnic breakdowns show Trump leading among White voters with 53 percent, while Harris has strong support from African American voters at 74 percent and Hispanic voters at 50 percent.

“It’s not a huge surprise to see Trump ahead in his home state of Florida, which he won by three points in 2020,” said UNF Public Opinion Research Lab faculty director and professor of political science Dr. Michael Binder. “With Harris just entering the race, enthusiasm amongst her supporters has livened up what was once thought to be an easy win for Trump in Florida.”

The poll, conducted from July 24 to July 27 by UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab, surveyed 774 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican Rick Scott leads Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 4 percentage points, 47 percent to 43 percent. Among Republicans, 79 percent support Scott, while 80 percent of Democrats back Mucarsel-Powell. Independent voters are nearly evenly split, with 42 percent supporting Scott and 40 percent backing Mucarsel-Powell.

By gender, Scott is favored by 51 percent of men and 40 percent of women, while Mucarsel-Powell is supported by 53 percent of women and 38 percent of men.

“What’s really interesting is that Trump has a couple point bigger lead than Rick Scott, who’s only up by four – just inside the margin of error of this poll,” said Binder. “Scott has a history of winning razor thin statewide races in Florida, and in a state that has become significantly more red in the past six years, this could be another close race for Scott.”

The poll also assessed voter opinions on three proposed constitutional amendments. Amendment 1, which would require partisan elections for district school board members, faces opposition from 40 percent of respondents, while 37 percent are in favor and 23 percent are undecided or refused to answer. Support for Amendment 1 is higher among Republicans (45 percent) and lower among Democrats (24 percent).

Amendment 3, which would legalize adult personal use of marijuana, has strong support, with 64 percent of likely voters in favor and 31 percent opposed. The amendment is particularly popular among Democrats (79 percent) and younger voters aged 18-24 (76 percent).

“It’s not too clear yet how much money will be injected into the campaign against this amendment,” noted Binder. “If the opposing organizations ramp up their campaigns, we may see this number come down, depending how much cash is spent in opposition.”

Amendment 4, which aims to limit government interference with abortion, has the highest support, with 69 percent in favor and 23 percent opposed. This amendment has strong backing from Democrats (87 percent) and women (74 percent).

“Again, we have yet to see campaigns on either side of this really get moving,” said Binder. “Factor in the highly contested and contentious financial impact statement recently added to the ballot summary, and I would expect to see support for this amendment drop before November.”

All constitutional amendment initiatives require 60 percent voter approval for ratification.

The poll utilized a dual-frame, multi-mode design, incorporating both telephone and web surveys. The sample was sourced from the Florida voter file, including those who voted in the 2022 or 2020 elections and new voters. The response rate was 3.3%, and data were weighted to match the demographics of likely voters in Florida, including adjustments for educational attainment, partisan registration, age, race, ethnicity, sex, and geographic strata.