Florida’s GOP heavyweights are scrambling for seats at the political poker table — and with a potential Rubio appointment, it looks like DeSantis holds a few trump cards.

Florida’s political landscape is rumbling as Donald Trump’s fresh Cabinet picks, or, at least rumored picks, create downstream turbulence, triggering a stampede of eager contenders. While there’s still been no official confirmation, many media outlets, including Reuters, are now saying U.S. Senator Marco Rubio will join Trump’s posse as Secretary of State. Meanwhile, it’s already been confirmed that Congressman Mike Waltz will vacate his Congressional seat to assume the post of Trump’s national security advisor, and, to top it all off, Senator Rick Scott remains in the running for Senate Majority Leader.

The Rubio appointment, if confirmed, also thrusts Governor Ron DeSantis back into the role of ringleader in a high-stakes reshuffle in the Sunshine State. Not only will he get to set the dates for any special elections to Congress, but, depending on how he plays his cards, his choice to replace Rubio could trigger a cascade of follow-on appointments or more special elections. It goes without saying that the scramble to fill these vacancies – rumored or real – is shaping up to be a classic Florida free-for-all, where contenders, and their consultant allies, line up with a mix of experience, ambition, and – in true Wild West fashion – maybe a dash of luck.

And then there’s a few other rumors, about still more Florida political players landing roles in a Trump Administration. From Florida Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson to Congressman Byron Donalds, from former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi to Congressman Matt Gaetz, the domino effect of any one move by Trump or DeSantis has the potential to significantly shake up long-made plans for 2026 statewide contests.

Trump still has to make choices on who will lead the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Attorney General, and a handful of other plum cabinet roles, so we can expect the Sunshine State to remain a ripe source of speculation until the dust finally settles closer to Inauguration Day.  Here’s a quick rundown of the rumors, speculation and potential wild cards that we’re hearing.

Waltz’s Seat: Local Contenders Prepare for a Showdown

The race to replace Waltz in Florida’s Congressional District 6 will undoubtedly draw interest from a cast of characters with overlapping territory, local ties, or simply a good instinct for seizing an opportunity. State Senator Tom Leek, representing a significant swath of Waltz’s district, is a familiar face in the region and may have the standing needed to launch a strong campaign. Similarly, State Senator Keith Truenow, an Air Force veteran whose district overlaps with Waltz’s, brings military credentials to the table and could stir up grassroots support among the district’s defense-minded voters.

But the list doesn’t end there. Local state representatives like Sam Greco, Judson Sapp, Richard Gentry, and Bill Partington all hail from areas within or near Waltz’s district, though most are fresh faces in the state legislature, which could give them pause about diving into a congressional run so soon. Still, they each bring regional clout and are attuned to the needs of the district’s voters, which could make any one of them an appealing candidate – if they’re willing to jump into the fray.

And while the legislative crowd jostles for position, there’s plenty of room for a few wild cards, too. A popular local sheriff with overlapping jurisdiction could rally regional support, or perhaps a well-known local official looking for a promotion. And, of course, it wouldn’t be Florida without the potential for a wealthy newcomer with no political background to burst onto the scene, saddling up for a chance to make their mark in D.C.

Rubio’s Senate Seat: The Governor’s Wild Card

When it comes to filling Marco Rubio’s Senate seat, Governor DeSantis holds all the cards, and he’s got a lot of options for how he might play his hand. Some think he could go with a seasoned state official, like Attorney General Ashley Moody, who has a long record as a trusty law-and-order sidekick to DeSantis, and she’d easily satisfy Trump’s supporters. But Moody might also be facing a strategic dilemma: does she ride up to Washington, or does he stay put in Florida and go all-in for the Governor’s mansion in 2026?

Wilton Simpson is already a formidable threat as a gubernatorial candidate, too, so a free pass to Washington for Moody might be quite tempting. Then again, what if Trump has something in mind for Simpson?  The possibilities are intriguing, to be sure, with the follow-on effects requiring a chaos theory supercomputer to calculate all the potential scenarios.

Of course, appointing Moody or any other cabinet official to the post – including Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez –  would be the equivalent of DeSantis dealing himself another card: triggering another appointment scramble to replace Moody, Nunez, Simpson, or even Patronis, at the state level, with possibly even more ambitious contenders in the mix.

Let’s analyze a hypothetical Moody appointment to replace Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate. Here’s how the dominoes might fall: U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz is rumored to be eyeing the Attorney General prize for 2026…does DeSantis short circuit that move with a pick of his own, installing someone other than Gaetz to give that person a leg up in the 2026 ocontest?  Or does DeSantis hand the job to Gaetz early, virtually cementing him in that role? Does Gaetz even want the job?

Another cowboy likely to benefit from all the rootin-tootin’ boot scootin’: if either Moody or Simpson get tapped for a new role by either Trump or DeSantis, Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis stands to gain by virtue of having a wider lane to run for governor in 2026. And then there’s Congressman Byron Donalds another firebrand similar to Gaetz, and someone who has long had Trump’s back. Either of them could be a strategic pick for Senate, but they’d require DeSantis to call yet another special election to fill their House seat.

Then there are the candidates who wouldn’t require a follow-on appointment. Former Attorney General Pam Bondi, who held a limited role in Trump’s first administration, could be a natural fit. And while rumors have surfaced that DeSantis’ wife, Casey DeSantis, might be a tempting choice for the governor, it’s widely speculated that even in this high-stakes game, the governor knows appointing his own spouse could look a little too self-serving.

Along those same lines: one theory even suggests DeSantis might appoint himself, or at least make arrangements for it to happen, by swapping roles with Lt. Governor Jeanette Nuñez, who would become governor and – in a pre-arranged deal – appoint DeSantis as senator. But that idea has as many pitfalls as possibilities. First, there’s no ironclad guarantee Nuñez would follow through once she’s governor. And second, the move could come off as even more self-interested than appointing his own wife to the post. In all, we think that’s a bridge too far for the famously strategic DeSantis.

Dark Horses in the Dust

While the obvious choices have the most chatter, DeSantis could very well take a less predictable route. There are a handful of other dark-horse candidates whose names have started to circulate in political circles. The Governor has proven adept at keeping rivals and allies alike guessing, so a surprise pick may be just as likely as a traditional one.

In true frontier style, there are no shortage of possible moves, and every contender knows that this game is as much about positioning as it is about politics.

The Domino Effect: IF, IF, IF…

The reality is that every move in this political shuffle triggers another ripple, opening new lanes for contenders across the state. If any number of Florida political players are headed to Washington, the moves bring opportunities for others to step up.

In Florida’s political frontier, the possibilities are endless, and speculation runs high as each player tries to read the Governor’s hand. One thing is for sure: with Trump back in the White House and Florida politicians in the mix for nearly every prominent role in Washington, the state has become the new capital of conservative ambition. Every move Trump and / or DeSantis makes in the coming weeks will set the stage for a power shift not just within Florida, but across the national landscape.