Florida’s economy is projected to grow between 2.5 percent and 3 percent in 2025, continuing to outpace the national average despite a marked slowdown from recent years, according to the Florida Chamber Foundation’s annual economic forecast.
The report found that while the state’s business-friendly policies, migration patterns and industry diversification remain economic drivers, inflationary pressures, interest rates and workforce constraints pose challenges in the year ahead.
“While question marks surround national policies, geopolitics, and economic trends, Florida is poised to see a steadying of economic, labor market, and population growth after the momentum of the last few years,” the report reads.
In the three years following the COVID-19 pandemic, Florida posted an average annualized real GDP growth rate of 5.9 percent, far surpassing the national average of 3.2 percent, largely sustained by population growth, strong consumer spending patterns and corporate relocations from high-tax states. But as the economy stabilizes, Florida’s growth is expected to return to historical norms, with 2025 marking a shift away from the post-pandemic boom toward a more measured trajectory.
The Chamber Foundation further stated that Florida’s lack of an income tax, pro-business regulatory climate, and expanding manufacturing sector provide a foundation for sustained investment. Corporate relocations, particularly in finance and technology, are expected to bring high-wage jobs, though rising costs and shifting labor market dynamics could temper the momentum.
Interest rates remain a factor in the state’s outlook, as Federal Reserve policymakers signaled at the end of 2024 that they expect to implement one or two rate cuts this year, though the reductions will likely be modest. That means borrowing costs will remain elevated for businesses and consumers, limiting major capital investments and slowing growth in key sectors such as real estate and construction. Florida’s housing market, an economic driver, has already seen cooling demand, with median sale prices expected to stabilize between $415,000 and $425,000.
“Despite rising costs as of late, 2025 is expected to be a cooler year in the housing market. Increases in housing supply are expected to continue, stabilizing prices,” the report states. “Ultimately, the outlook for Florida’s market is heavily dependent on the movement (or lack of movement) of inflation rates in 2025.”
Inflation remains another pressure point. While the pace of price increases slowed in 2024, persistent inflation, compounded by new tariffs on imports from China, Mexico and Canada, could dampen consumer spending. The report analysis found that Floridians allocate 87.6 percent of their income toward expenditures, exceeding the national average of 80.5 percent, making the state particularly sensitive to rising costs.
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