A new Emerson College Polling survey suggests U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds has emerged as the \ Republican front-runner in Florida’s 2026 governor’s race, while Democrats remain largely unsettled and a sizable share of voters are still undecided in both the primary and general-election matchups.
The poll, released April 2, found Donalds at 46% support in the Republican primary, ahead of Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and James Fishback, who each drew 4%, with 39% undecided.
“Byron Donalds is the clear favorite among Republicans to succeed Governor DeSantis,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Donalds leads all age groups and holds majority support among voters over 60, at 54%.”
In a separate hypothetical Republican ballot test that included Casey DeSantis, Donalds led with 44% support, compared with 7% for DeSantis, according to the survey.
On the Democratic side, former Republican congressman David Jolly led the field with 21%, followed by Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings at 10%, while 53% of voters said they were undecided. In a hypothetical general-election contest, Donalds led Jolly 44% to 39%, with 15% undecided. In another matchup, Jolly and Casey DeSantis were effectively tied, with Jolly at 40% and DeSantis at 39%, while 19% were undecided.
The poll also pointed to a competitive divide among some voter groups. Emerson said Hispanic voters were nearly split between Donalds and Jolly, 42% to 41%, while men favored Donalds by 14 percentage points and women favored Jolly by 3 points.
In Florida’s U.S. Senate race, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody led several potential Democratic opponents. The poll showed Moody ahead of Alex Vindman by 46% to 38%, ahead of Hector Mujica by 45% to 38%, and ahead of state Rep. Angie Nixon by 47% to 36%.
Moody, who was appointed to the Senate in January 2025, posted a 36% approval rating, while 28% disapproved and 36% said they were neutral or had not heard enough about her.
More broadly, the survey found President Donald Trump with a 46% job approval rating among likely Florida voters, compared with 47% who disapproved. Gov. Ron DeSantis was viewed more favorably, with 50% approving and 40% disapproving. The poll also found 56% of likely voters said a mid-decade redraw of Florida’s congressional districts was a bad idea, while 44% said it was a good idea. Forty-five percent said they were worse off financially than a year ago.
The Emerson survey was conducted March 29-31 among 1,125 likely voters in Florida and had a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
