The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season to be below normal, though the agency said there remains a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of above-normal activity.
NOAA expects 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes during the 2026 Atlantic season. An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The agency said it has 70% confidence in its forecast ranges.
The lower forecast is tied in part to El Niño, which NOAA expects to develop and strengthen during the hurricane season. El Niño conditions typically reduce Atlantic hurricane activity, though NOAA said the outlook is being shaped by “competing factors,” including slightly warmer-than-normal Atlantic ocean temperatures and weaker-than-average trade winds.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
The agency also outlined changes to its forecasting and public warning systems for the 2026 season. The National Hurricane Center will use an updated forecast cone that includes inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. NOAA also plans to test an experimental cone designed to show a wider range of possible storm tracks by incorporating uncertainty in both direction and timing.
NOAA said it is expanding its use of artificial intelligence, machine learning, satellite data, flood-mapping tools and drone observations. For the first time, data from small uncrewed aircraft systems will be incorporated into NOAA’s hurricane forecast model, a change the agency said can improve hurricane intensity forecast accuracy by 10%.
